A new report from the Ohio Manufacturers’ Association (OMA) finds that unverified electricity demand forecasts are inflating projected power needs and driving higher electric bills across the PJM region.
The report was released alongside a preview of proposed legislation that would require independent verification and public review of large-load forecasts before they can be used to justify major power infrastructure spending.
“Customers are being asked to pay for a future that may never arrive,” OMA President Ryan Augsburger said. “Speculative forecasts are being treated like guaranteed demand, and paper demand is driving real costs.”
The report cites findings from PJM’s Independent Market Monitor showing speculative load forecasts increased regional electricity capacity costs by $21.3 billion over three years, compared with $1.8 billion tied to actual realized load growth during the same period. Those assumptions are being incorporated into long-term planning models as guaranteed growth, pushing up capacity prices and triggering unnecessary transmission and generation projects, the report says.
Because utilities and transmission owners earn returns on approved infrastructure, overstated forecasts can encourage building even when projected load never materializes, shifting the cost to customers.
At a news conference hosted by OMA, State Sen. Mark Romanchuk, R-Ontario, discussed the proposed Electricity Forecast Integrity Act, which would require large-load projections to be independently verified before being incorporated into regional planning and pricing models.
“This proposed bill draws a clear line between real demand and hypothetical demand,” Romanchuk said. “Ohioans deserve a power system built on evidence, not assumptions.”
Click here to read the OMA’s executive summary of the analysis. 2/5/2026