Economic Barometer: September 2022

• U.S. consumer prices edged up 0.1% in August as core inflation — excluding energy and food — rose 0.6% for the month, indicating higher costs have expanded beyond energy.
• The producer price index (wholesale prices) declined 0.1% last month, due mostly to lower fuel prices. The index is up 8.7% on a year-over-year basis.
• The Federal Open Market Committee will likely increase the federal funds rate by 75 basis points at its Sept. 20-21 meeting, said Chad Moutray, chief economist for the National Association of Manufacturers. (Some economists predict a full-percentage-point increase.)
• To get inflation under control, Fed officials need to push the federal funds rate to 4% or higher before considering a pause, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist for OMA Connections Partner RSM.
• Overall U.S. industrial production fell by 0.2% in August, the first decline in three months, amid a slowdown in manufacturing and a sharp drop in electricity production.

Meanwhile, a Bank of America survey of 212 fund managers finds 92% of them now expect corporate profits to decline next year, with high inflation being seen as the biggest factor. 9/15/2022