Economic Barometer: December 2022

• U.S. manufacturing activity last month contracted for the first time since May 2020, according to ISM’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index^® — although the data showed continued supply chain improvement.
• OMA Connections Partner RSM forecasts a 65% probability of mild recession over the next 12 months, while predicting a 1% year-over-year rise in U.S. manufacturing output.
• U.S. manufacturing job growth has averaged 34,000 per month this year, according the the Bureau of Labor Statistics. (Employment has expanded in all but three major subsectors, with transportation equipment in the lead.)
• The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook index for Q4 showed a decline of 11 points — continuing a slide that has occurred every quarter this year.
• Americans’ pandemic-era cash pile is shrinking, but economists have varied guesses on when those savings will be exhausted.

Meanwhile, economists say it’s likely any future recession will hit without much warning from industrial production, based on trends from the past 50 years. 12/8/2022