Ohio’s 2026 governor’s race is heating up as term-limited Gov. Mike DeWine prepares to step aside, drawing national attention.

A new Ohio Federation of Teachers poll of 800 likely voters, conducted from Sept. 19 through Sept. 22, 2025, shows Democrat Amy Acton narrowly leading Republican frontrunner Vivek Ramaswamy 46% to 45%, within the poll’s ±3% margin of error. Acton, the former state health director who gained prominence during the COVID-19 pandemic, leads among independents 52% to 31% and holds a commanding 92% to 1% advantage among Democrats. Ramaswamy dominates Republicans 89% to 8%, highlighting the race’s strong partisan split.

Prediction markets, which are online platforms where participants buy and sell contracts tied to future events, show Republicans favored to hold the governor’s office. On Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange, traders give Republicans about a 65% chance of retaining the seat, while Ramaswamy’s GOP nomination odds hover near 91%. Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market, gives the GOP roughly a 68% chance of victory, highlighting sustained confidence in Republican dominance in Ohio, where no Democrat has won since 2006.

For Ohio manufacturers, the race is worth watching. The next administration will influence policies on workforce development, energy and industrial competitiveness. 11/10/2025