Large Load Tariffs Cannot Fix a Bad Forecast

04/03/2026

Special tariffs for data centers and other large loads are spreading quickly, but the core problem has not changed: utilities are still asking regulators and customers to make long-term decisions based on forecasts that may never become real. Utility Dive reported this week that large-load tariffs are proliferating nationwide, even as doubts remain about whether those tariffs are protecting other customers from risk.

That is why OMA has kept pressing the forecast-integrity issue in Ohio. As OMA has argued, AEP Ohio’s widely cited 30-gigawatt figure was never a real planning number. OMA energy engineer John Seryak said it was used to create urgency around the tariff case, not to reflect credible system needs.

“Utilities keep presenting these tariffs as risk management,” said Lindsey Short, OMA managing director of energy and advocacy services. “But the first risk regulators should manage is whether the underlying forecast deserves to be trusted in the first place.” 4/1/2026

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