Data center electricity “forecasts” continue to surge, raising questions about how much projected demand will actually materialize and how much customers should be expected to finance.

BloombergNEF recently increased its estimate for U.S. data center electricity demand in 2035 to 194 gigawatts, an 83% jump from its forecast just six months earlier. Forecasts from different firms now vary by roughly 100 gigawatts, an amount approximately equal to the entire existing U.S. nuclear power fleet.

That enormous range underscores the uncertainty surrounding projects that utilities and grid operators are already using to justify billions of dollars in new generation and transmission spending. Analysts also acknowledged that much of the proposed data center capacity remains in the early stages of development and that some developers have no experience building data centers.

“A forecast that changes by 83% in six months, while differing from other estimates by the equivalent of the nation’s entire nuclear fleet, should not become a decades-long obligation for customers,” said Lindsey Short, managing director of energy and advocacy services for the Ohio Manufacturers’ Association (OMA). “Before manufacturers are asked to pay for new infrastructure, regulators should verify that the projected demand is real, committed and likely to materialize.”

OMA continues to support independent review of large-load forecasts before speculative demand is built into customer rates. 7/28/2026